Posted on 03-27-2009 under Previews

Today, the Ultimate Preview covers the defensive intricacies of the two continental giants.


For Barca, The Tigerblog predicts the following defensive lineup:


Abidal—Marquez—Puyol—Alves


While there could be injuries that alter this, we should expect these four to play if fit. It’s important to note that Éric Abidal has had sporadic issues with his ankle all year, and the lion Carles Puyol will just be returning from injury to his ankle ligaments. While Barca wasn’t made to rue Puyol’s absence when he missed the second Group Stage match against Lyon, remember that Barca gave up two pretty weak goals in that game, even though the brilliant Barcelona attack machine (to be previewed next week) had removed all doubt from their triumph by then. Having all four of these players healthy with their full compliment of defensive substitutions will be important for Barca.


Puyol and Alves in Training


Unquestionably, the strength of Barcelona’s defense is its capability to join the attack, particularly through the dynamic piranha himself, Dani Alves. Alves likes to go up the field and when he does, he generally stays close to the sideline, which provides space for Leo Messi and the other midfielders and simultaneously good positioning for Alves to make his terrific crosses. Defenses that choose to double team Messi leave more room for the dangerous Alves, and teams that try to account for Alves risk leaving more room for Messi to roam. Barcelona have used this tactic to devastating effect this season. One criticism of it is that Alves tends to get caught upfield, thereby putting added pressure on the remaining defenders. While Puyol can do a magnificent job covering for Alves in these situations, Barca is certainly vulnerable to the counter-attack, which is no doubt something Bayern will be looking to do.


Marquez


On the other side, Frenchman Abidal and the Mexican Rafa Márquez have a different partnership. This is surely the more conservative side of the Barcelona defense, though it lacks little in terms of talent. Abidal generally stays home and very rarely will he initiate the attack. He wouldn’t have much space to do so without being caught in an awkward position, as Thierry Henry usually plays so close to the touchline in Barcelona’s formation. For Márquez—a truly dirty and bitter player for his national team, CONCACAF bridesmaids Mexico—he has a sublime talent in his long passing. He can loft the ball from the back of the field to the front with incredible accuracy, which generally keeps him in good position to defend. Watching him make long passes is a treat, so defenders (or spectators) best not sleep when Márquez has the ball and is looking up field. We may not see them marauding into attack, but Abidal and Márquez will be relied upon by Barca nonetheless. If the pair are beaten, it surely will not be for being overly aggressive or out of position.


The last note on Barca which must be mentioned is that they are vulnerable in the air. They are a pretty small team, and they don’t defend corners very well as a result. Look for München to try to take advantage of this fact as they venture forward looking for goals.


For Munich, I’m expecting this lineup, though I think Bayern may be inclined to sub:


Lahm—Demechilis—Lúcio—Oddo


I’d say there’s a 70% chance they go with the above lineup, and a 29% chance they go with Massimo Oddo replaced by Christian Lell. There’s a slight chance Jürgen Klinsmann would deploy regular midfielder and Tigerblog favorite Hamit Altintop in a fullback role, but we will go with the Oddo lineup for this preview.


Demichelis & Lucio


Following last season’s historically prolific defense that set a Bundesliga record for fewest goals conceded (21), the backline was the last thing Bayern supporters would have expected to falter this season. But the bizarre mistakes from Demichelis and musk ox Lúcio along with the strange sale of Marcel Jansen have caused confidence to waver for the München faithful. Last season Bayern was impenetrable through the middle, but this year they’ve been made to pay for Lúcio’s swashbuckling runs forward and Demichelis’ frustrating rash of slips and cement-legs. While Lúcio’s wanderlust has always been a part of his game, Bayern fans will be hoping he plays more conservatively given Barca’s mercurial ability to counterattack. As for Demichelis, he’s a great player when he doesn’t get caught ball-watching or slipping on the turf. While the center of Bayern’s defense isn’t as skilled with the ball as Barca, they aren’t exactly bad and can be competent on the ball when it’s played back to them.


Lahm


On the wings, Philipp Lahm plays a similar wing-back role as Daniel Alves, but tends not to be as risky as often as Alves. Along with Alves, José Bosingwa, and Sergio Ramos, Lahm is one of the best fullbacks in the world and his crosses are made with sensational accuracy. While he doesn’t have the height of his partners in the central defense, he is pacy enough to stay with anyone and he usually marks very well. On the other side, the on-loan Massimo Oddo is also a talented crosser who attacks from his position, although he’s not in the class of Lahm or Alves. If Bayern’s default attitude becomes defensive or if Henry is giving Oddo trouble, look for the more defensively-inclined and agile Christian Lell to come into the game on the right side. He has younger legs and can make runs forward, but tends not to do much once he’s up there, so look for Lell to spell Oddo with an assignment to play a more physical defensive style.


Puyol defends Schweini


How I see it playing out: To put it bluntly, if Lúcio or Demichelis screw up and and concede a goal up the middle, Bayern are toast. The key phrase here is screw up; if the goal is well-worked by Barca and inevitably comes up the middle, it would not be as disastrous as a slip up or mental error would be. If there is such a mistake, the confidence of Bayern’s central defense will be compromised and the blood will be in the water for Barca’s merciless attack. Bayern will need a smart and conservative performance from their central defenders to help n00b GK Michael Rensing and to enable the involvement of their wing-backs up front. Look for Bayern fullbacks to be involved in the attack, but if they venture too far, we could see Rensing digging the ball out of his net in no time if Barca can produce on the counter-attack. If Bayern can organize well, expect midfielder Mark Van Bommel to assist by hounding Xavi or Messi, leaving the central defenders to mark the loose runners. Also, Bayern will probably try to intimidate Barcelona with some hard fouls, particularly in the first game at the Camp Nou. Depending on the officiating, look for Lúcio and/or Dimichelis to pick up a card and if Lell comes on, he will surely earn one also.


I mentioned yesterday that I expect Barca to concede a goal at some point on a corner or set-piece. I still believe this, and also expect them to concede a goal on the run of play as well whether it comes from a cross from the wing or a well-timed Bayern run up the middle, maybe from the ageless Zé Roberto. But If Alves can assert himself up front and Puyol and Marquez can successfully cover for him in the back, this will be a great harbinger for Barca success. Puyol or Marquez will most certainly earn a card, and if the referee detects a dive or faux injury from Alves, he could receive one also.


Many other previews (not that you should be reading those…) see this as a high-scoring tie, but I’m not inclined to swing one way or the other just yet. I’ll save that for the final prediction next week when all the facts are on the table.


See you next week as the Ultimate Bayern Barca Preview rolls on…